Our Puppy

Along with a full kitchen renovation (gutted to the joists/studs/subfloor) that is now 95 percent done (just a tile backsplash left to complete), we got a puppy a few weeks back.

Wrigley is like having a third baby, but he has been relatively easy to train. The first 10 days we had a couple of "accidents" where he pee'd in the house and twice where he pooped, but the last 3 weeks he has been fine. In fact, we can leave him for 6-7 hours and he is OK.

In the morning, I usually get up about 6:15, take 10 minutes to get ready, and then take him out for a quick walk. Then we get in and he is properly victualized (food and water) as I sit and do my morning prayer. He is quiet and as I am praying he usually curls up next to me. I like that quiet, calm time in the morning. It has been great for re-centering me and preparing me for each day.

Dogs aren't for everyone, but I like having Wrigley around.

Fantasy Football

So I'm drafting my guys on Monday for one of my leagues and I ended up picking Matt Forte way too early and some dude named Mike Sims-Walker in the middle rounds by accident. I like that I have Forte, but I picked him with like the 15th pick in the draft. I'm sure I could have gotten him in the third round. The problem was that I was looking at my rankings and not the Yahoo! rankings, so I thought he was the appropriate pick at the time.

Sims-Walker was on my board - I just stuck him on - but then when my pick came I either clicked on him or he was automatically put on my team when I ran out of time. To be perfectly honest, I don't know anything about him and I am not exactly sure what happened when my pick came around.

In any event, I got C.J. Spiller and Hakeem Nicks later in the draft and they seem to me to be poised for breakout years. I also think Forte will deliver. With Peyton Manning as my QB and the other guys I have I am fairly comfortable. I also like the Bears D and Robbie Gould as my kicker so I have even more incentive to root for my Bears.

Tonight I draft for my second team in my other league - I will be a bit more careful with my draft picks but I would take my full team right now from my other league and be perfectly satisfied.

Glenn Beck Rally

I'm not really sure what Glenn Beck wants in terms of substantive policy. But, this weekend he had his rally at the Lincoln Memorial. There are wildly different claims about how many people were there. My guess is it was about 100,000.

Here is a photo of the event. To be sure there were a lot of people. But we attended the concert/inauguration festivities on the Sunday before President Obama was inaugurated and I can tell you there were far more people. All of the space on the west side of the Washington Monument (the part that is sparsely populated in the Beck photos) was packed. There were probably 200,000 to 250,000 people at that concert.

Then for President Obama's Inauguration the number was way, way bigger. You can see the photo from the Capitol to the Washington Monument was packed. That space is twice as long as from the Lincoln Memorial to the Washington Monument, and it is wider because most of the space on the other side (the side Beck spoke on) is covered by the Reflecting Pool.

People who know DC understand what I am talking about.

Economy Thoughts

There is a lot of hand-wringing and concern about the U.S. economy - as there should be. But the reality is that things are certainly stable and looking out over the near to medium term, things look like we are moving in the right direction.

I am not arguing that we are in the middle of a boom cycle, or that we are where we want to be. I am saying that things look like they are progressing nicely.

Let's start with unemployment and jobs - because that is what most people really care about. In 2008, the s**t really hit the fan and jobs were being shed at a horribly bad pace and unemployment started to rise rapidly.

Many people forget that the job losses really ramped up in 2008. In January 2009, when President Obama took office, the country lost nearly 800,000 jobs that month. A year earlier, the job losses started (10,000 jobs lost in January 2008) and each month they got worse. The Stimulus plan was passed in February 2009 and since then we have seen significant improvement in the jobs figures. The last two months have seen jobs losses, but they have been mostly tied to the temporary jobs that were created as part of the 2010 Census. Right now, we basically have 0 job growth. But, given that we started with losses of 700,000+ each month in late 2008 and early 2009, it is clear that we are in much better shape.

The Dow is now over 10,000, from a low of 6500 - and with this, we see that corporate profits and cash are back to pre-collapse levels. In fact, every year there is a summer slowdown in the economy and with companies hoarding cash, all we need is a spark to get those dollars flowing out again. I see no reason why this Christmas/Holiday season won't be the best its been in several years.

People who wanted change and a turnaround are getting it. I'd like to see it moving faster, but am realistic enough to recognize that moving a $13 trillion economy doesn't happen overnight. But it has now moved into a much better position a year and a half into President Obama's term in office.

Bears Thoughts

I've watched the three Bears preseason games on tape replay on NFL Network. There are things to worry about, but they should get ironed out.

First, the special teams have been absolutely horrible. Poor snaps on punts/kicks, missed field goals, missed tackles, poor returns, bad punts, etc. I have confidence that all of those will get worked out as the special teams players get locked in and the season starts.

Second, the offense has been anemic. There are some concerns about the O-line, but I am still fairly confident that that unit will be OK. Chris Williams struggled against the Raiders a couple of weeks ago, but he should be a great LT for the next decade. He showed great signs last year and I expect him to be OK. Working against Peppers during the pre-season should help. Louis (RG) and Omiyale (RT) are new starters and Garza moved from RG to LG. So, the unit is all new and needs some games to get it together. I like the line.

I believe the receiving corps will be solid, but you can see that timing is not there yet. There are some passes that Cutler is just off on or the receivers are a step behind. Hopefully that will get going.

The running game should be better and I like the pickup of Chester Taylor. Forte ripped off an 89 yard run against the Raiders and he looks much faster. Knee and ankle injuries really slowed him down last year, but he looks like a different guy. I think he is set for a big year.

The big question is whether Cutler can avoid the costly mistakes. We'll see.

The D has been much better, but unfortunately, they haven't played with their whole first unit because of dings this pre-season. Chris Harris at strong safety has been a solid tackler, but he has missed a couple of angles on passes and given up big plays. Safety play has been a concern for a couple of years and I hope to see improvement there. I think Peppers will have a huge year and I expect this to be a solid defensive unit.

The problem is the Packers look great right now. I'll make my predictions right before the season.

It's Been A While

I took the summer off from blogging and feel refreshed. A new puppy and a kitchen renovation took up most of the last two months, and now school is starting up again.

The kids started school today. I'm in my second week and love my schedule. I've got two fantasy drafts this week and the NFL season is nearly here. I love it.

Excellent Jobs Number

290,000 jobs created in April. That is a great, great number.

Unemployment rose from 9.7 percent to 9.9 percent. People shouldn't worry about that because all it means is that people who had given up on jobs and were no longer considered in the work force are now streaming back into the workforce.

A few more months of 300,000 jobs created and we will start to see the unemployment rate start to really plummet. Again, we see that the economic policies of this President are working.

Deadskins Pull Same Old B.S.

WJLA - the local ABC affiliate in DC - had a story they were doing about an Iraq war vet who was coming home early and wanted to surprise his Redskin cheerleader wife. You know, one of those fluff, feel-good stories.

WJLA asked the Deadskins to film the reunion at FedEx, but instead of giving them access, the Deadskins said no, and then turned around and told WRC - the local NBC affiliate who also happens to be a Deadskins sponsor about the story.

They barred WJLA from covering their story and then gave the story to WRC.

To make matters worse, apparently, they told the cheerleader that if she spoke with WJLA she would be fired. Danny Boy's culture at its finest. When the sh*t hit the fan Danny Boy apologized to WJLA - of course, it was too late, the PR damage was done.

More Good News on Jobs

The private sector reports on jobs are showing positive signs and on Friday I expect we will see another solid jobs growth number. If we get more than 175,000 jobs on Friday it will be a very good sign.

Frankly, I am expecting to see the number above 225,000 because of the sustained economic growth we have seen in Q1 with GDP growing at 3.2 percent.

I am projecting Q2 and Q3 growth to come in above 3.5 percent and then to hit 4+ percent in Q4. If that happens, we will see 300,000 jobs created per month starting in about June, and perhaps as many as 400,000 jobs late this year.

Gulf Oil Slick

I heard a bunch of Obama haters the last few days saying that Obama is failing to solve the oil slick problem in the Gulf.

I'm not exactly sure what he can do about it, but I shake my head at the intellectual dishonesty of many of the President's critics. Many of these same people want to "Drill Baby Drill" and they want the government to leave Big Oil alone because drilling is so "safe."

Now they are complaining that the government isn't doing enough.

Which is it? Do you want government oversight (which these same idiots call "socialism" at every turn), or do you want unfettered capitalism?

It certainly looks like BP did not adequately provide "fail-safe" measures and now the tourist and fishing industries are devastated.

Growing GDP

First quarter GDP grew by 3.2 percent. Not spectacular, but certainly very solid growth.

This is yet another sign that the economy is turned around. I'd like to see growth above 3.5 percent the rest of the year. That will ensure significant job creation and it will greatly reduce the fiscal budget deficit because it will increase tax revenue because there will be more taxable income.

Overall, another great sign that things are improving.

BP Oil Spill in Gulf

There is a huge oil spill from one of BP's offshore oil rigs in the Gulf. Apparently it is pretty bad and it is now threatening the Louisiana coastline.

All of those "Drill Baby Drill" folks want to believe there is no risk to the environment and the tourist economies in many seaside areas. If this spill happened off the Miami coast or Ocean City, NJ or Myrtle Beach, SC, those economies would be devastated far more than any financial gain that those areas/states would receive from private oil companies.