Shaq to the Cleveland Cavs

I love the move. Shaq is 37, but he just needs one more year to win one more championship. I think the fact that Kobe won this year will drive him to get into shape and be ready to make one last push.

I love LeBron's game and think a physical presence like Shaq could help him overcome Dwight Howard in the East.

Further Evidence the Economy is Turning

Q1 GDP fell at an annualized rate of 5.5 percent. This is a slight revision from the reported 5.7 percent decline that was announced last month by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The economy was falling by 6.3 percent in Q4. It is a long hard slog to get the economy going again, but as I have been saying for weeks, we should see real imporvement in the next two quarters as stimulus dollars hit the economy.

Governor Sanford is an Idiot

The guy disappears for a few days and it turns out he is off in Argentina having an affair.

Argentina? WTF?

His already fleeting presidential hopes are now totally gone.

I thought Republican Senator Ensign's admission last week that he was sleeping with one of his oldest friend's wife was bad, but leaving you wife and four sons over Father's Day weekend to fly off to Argentina for a secret international rendezvous seems even more bizarre.

Off Color "Joke"

Something that has never happened to me in my adult life happened yesterday. Over the last several years, I have been a regular visitor to a certain right-wing blog. The blog administrator has been fair and although I don't agree with 95% of what he believes, I have respected him. I have taken my fair share of abuse and name calling from folks for my comments, but I have largely enjoyed the interaction.

Two days ago, the adminstrator posted a joke blog entry about some link between President Obama and Bigfoot. I didn't find it particularly funny, but I was not going to post on it.

Out of the blue, this regular to the blog, "Mike," posted up the following:

"Actually, I have learned from other sources that it is Rob's mother. And she is actually NOT wearing a custome, but naked in the photo."

The rush of shock and anger at this comment filled me immediately. For those who know me and who knew my mom, and the love I had for her in life (and still have for her in death), you can imagine what I felt and what I would have done if Mike had said it to my face.

Even as I burn with rage about the comment itself, what I found even more remarkable was the number of other folks who laughed and joined in support of Mike's comment. It was like a pack of middle school kids - not normal adult behavior. I'm not sure what it is with these people, but they lack basic moral values and decency. However, all that said, what I find disappointing is that there are other regulars to the blog, including the administrator, who have sat silent. I take that silence to mean that they accept Mike's comment and support it.

Mike has been an idiot for years, and even though his comment crossed a new line of childishness and bad taste it is not altogether surprising. But, the fact that no one took Mike to task for it - even after I commented on it - has been surprising. I would never allow something like that to be said about anyone's mother in my presence - online or otherwise - without comment and condemnation. I suppose my Mom raised me better than that.

Here is a link to the blog post - you can read the comments. Don't bother commenting on that blog post - the people who laughed have no shame or moral character. All they will do is laugh and make fun of you. Instead, just feel sorry for them and pray for them to learn the error of their ways.

U.S. Intervention Around the World

President Obama is taking a patient approach to the happenings in Iran. Given the volatility and the lack of an actual pro-American alternative in Iran, this is the right approach.

I feel for the Iranian people and hope that they are able to resolve their problems, but this is an Iranian problem. The U.S. has failed miserably when it has tried to dictate or gotten involved in the political goings on in sovereign nations.

We need to get out of the 24-hour news cycle mentality and allow countries to go through their processes themselves. What I find remarkable is the complete ignorance Republicans in Congress have toward what is happening in Iran, and/or their willingness to use Iran as a political football.

The opposition candidate still believes in the Supreme Leader and the religious theocracy, hates the U.S., wants nuclear weapons, and hates Israel. There is not U.S. interest in seeing him over Ahmedinejad.

What Should Obama Do About Iran?

The case against American interventionism in Iran. The U.S. should let the Iranians figure out what they are going to do.

President Obama: We Shouldn't Be Seen as Meddling in Iranian Elections

Obama is taking the right path with Iran.

CPI Tame

As expected the consumer price index (CPI) was very tame with just slight growth. In fact, consumer prices are down significantly from a year ago. This is a deflationary sign. The problem with falling prices is that it slows economic growth as people wait for big ticket item prices to fall even further.

Things are about where we should expect in a recovery period. As a related note, don't expect the Dow to run up over the next few months. The summer is always a slow time for Wall Street. We've also had a huge runup. If we can stay flat for about 3 months, it will be great news. Then, as the Fall rolls in and the stimulus dollars are having their impact, we should hear news of a better consumer shopping period this Christmas. That will lead to another nice runup in the market and growing confidence that the economy is getting back on track.

Just Plain Wrong

The President's team is reviewing whether to release a list of visitors to the White House. This is just flat out wrong. The American people have a right to know who is meeting with the President. Secret Service logs should be public information. I am not talking about personal matters and family, I am talking about visitors on official business to the Executive Branch.

Bush started this secretive policy and it is sad that Obama is not just overturning the precedent. It was wrong when Bush did it and it is still wrong today.

Inflation Concerns Overblown

With all of the liquidity the Fed has pumped into the financial sector, the federal borrowing and spending, there are some who are crying about the risk of inflation.

But, one has to understand the full causes and effects of inflation. It is not as simple as - you print some more money and spend and you get inflation. This certainly can drive inflation, but the reality is that it is far more complicated than that. For example, we are seeing some strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies because we are in a global recession and the world - for the most part - wants a strong dollar. It is the currency of choice.

This morning, the May PPI and the core PPI numbers were reported and they were fairly tame. Core PPI dropped by 0.1 percent.

Tomorrow the CPI numbers are released, but consumer prices have been falling over the last year.

Here is the rub - we are in one heck of a financial mess. The PPI and CPI numbers are indicating that in the short run there is a greater risk of deflation than there is of inflation. Over the longer term inflation is a concern, but right now the Fed is walking a tightrope with interest rates and liquidity. The Fed does not want to raise rates to encourage savings and sop up liquidity (thus lowering the risk of inflation) because that would harm the fragile recovery process. At the same time, as the economy starts to recover, the Fed does not want to continue with is low interest rates which could lead to a bout of inflation.

They seem to be on top of things. Bernanke has said the Fed won't monetize the debt (i.e., just print money to pay off debt) - I take him at his word for that. The goal is to get the economy going (GDP is still shrinking but it is improving), then raise rates to soak up excess liquidity, and then address the unsustainable structural deficits.

Rex is a Texan

Much maligned Rex Grossman found a good home in Houston. It is a solid team that should challenge for a playoff spot. He will be behind UVA alum Matt Schaub, but Schaub has a knack for getting injured. The backup QB in Houston is likely to get a few starts.

He was a good QB in Chicago, but the fans really turned on him. That is just what Chicago fans do to their QBs. I certainly wish him well.

Baseline Economy Obama Took Office With

Here is a link to the nonpartisan CBO's January 2009 report on the economy that Obama took office with.

It shows a $1.2 trillion deficit for this year (see Table 4).

It also shows that government spending for this fiscal year would come in at over $3.5 trillion. This made a few assumptions that the TARP would not be fully used and that unemployment would be a bit lower, so it is a conservative estimate.

Obama's first budget is for FY 2010 and his spending comes in just under $3.6 trillion. Basically it is holding the line on spending from this year.