Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania Primary Today

Finally, it is here. My prediction is that Hillary will win by about 6 percentage points. A couple of weeks ago she would have won by 25 points.

If Obama somehow wins (which I don't think he will), she will quit.

If Obama loses by less than 6 points, I think we will start to see a lot of superdelegates jump to Obama.

If Obama loses by 6-10 points, I don't think much will change and the race will continue as it has with Obama picking up more superdelegates, but there will be some who continue to sit on the fence.

If Obama loses by 11+ points (which is still a possibility), then I think Hillary and her supporters will really be energized. I don't think you would see superdelegates jump to Hillary, but more of them will then wait until Indiana and North Carolina before supporting Obama.

Should be interesting.

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