Monday, June 30, 2008

Oil at $143 barrel

Oil prices hit another all-time high. It looks like $5/gallon is a very real possibility.

But, let me offer a more positive hypothesis. Oil prices are going to collapse as soon as Congress agrees to regulate the largely unregulated commoditites trading market. I believe - as many believe - tht there is a significant bubble in that trading market. Speculators are pouring money into oil but the price has far overshot demand.

The other MAJOR factor is that the dollar has collapsed and remains weak. Until we have a President and Congress who are committed to controlling spending and getting the finances of the U.S. government in order (which will require some tax increases), the dollar will not recover.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Updated Electoral College Map

The latest state polls have come out and Obama's new Electoral College Map looks even better than it did this morning.

He wins the EC votes 317-221. I am confident he is going to win either North Carolina or Georgia, and believe he has a very good chance of winning both. If that happens, the EC totals would be 347-191 - A LANDSLIDE.

Electoral College Map

It has tilted further toward Barack Obama over the last two weeks. There is a long way to go, but the numbers look good for Obama right now.

Georgia and North Carolina will go to Obama and that will swing another net 60 electoral college votes to Obama. My prediction has been landslide victory for Obama, and I see nothing to change that right now.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Obama Vs. McCain - Just the tax facts!

There is a lot of confusion about Obama's tax increases. He plans cuts for working-class/middle-class Americans and increases on the super wealthy.

Good comparison of the two candidates in this video.

The Insanity and Inanity of Iraq

Last Sunday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki (our hand-picked PM that we have backed for years) visited Iran and made assurances to the Iranian government and the clerics that he would not sign an agreement with the U.S. to allow for the 58 permanent bases that Bushie wants to put in place before the end of the year.

Yesterday, he said that no new agreement will be signed with the U.S. to allow U.S. troops to staying the country after their U.N. mandate expires at the end of the year. In fact, he now says he will ask U.S. troops to leave.

I have been saying it for years - Iraq is a waste. All we got for our trillion dollars and 4100 dead soldiers is a country that is pro-Iranian. It is not surprising and should have been seen by the so-called "experts" who run our war mess. All you have to do is understand Sunni and Shia differences to know what was going to happen.


Friday, June 13, 2008

McCain's Town Hall Meetings

John McCain likes to hold town hall meetings. The small venues with relatively small audiences allow him to connect to voters. I think they are a good idea, but he is proposing that Obama join him in weekly town hall meetings.

I understand that this will allow him to speak in front of larger audiences who would be drawn to see Obama, and get greater media coverage. It can also help him offset the disparity that is sure to come in terms of ad buys. McCain is badly trailing in the money race and just won't be able to compete on an ad-for-ad basis. However, that said, I think he is making a mistake. Here are the reasons why:

1. Right now McCain's audiences are friendly folks who want to hear him talk. If Obama is there, there are bound to be large numbers of anti-McCain folks who will boo, shake their heads, and perhaps laugh at him. This is likely to set off his notoriously bad temper and he really doesn't look very becoming when he is angry.

2. I don't think the physical image of a tall, young, slim, and dynamic Obama next to the more mature, lethargic, short and stocky McCain serves McCain very well.

3. One gaffe by McCain in which he forgets something will make him look like poor old Grampy who needs to take his medicine and take a nap so that he can remember things better. It will be like the Bob Dole mishap when he fell of the stage while shaking hands. That made Dole look old and feeble and I can see the same thing happening to McCain.

Be careful what you wish for Mac, because you may actually get it.

Olbermann Special Comment McCain on Troops Coming Home pt.1

Keith strikes again. Part II follows in the other post.

Olbermann Special Comment McCain on Troops Coming Home pt.2

McCain: Bringing Troops Home from Iraq

He doesn't think it is important when they come home.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

We Will Be Out of Iraq Within 2 Years

Whether or not Obama is the President, the U.S. presence in Iraq will be greatly diminished. The Iraqis themselves are now increasingly asking us to leave. The reason is quite simple, they don't want to be occupied AND Iran has significant influence on the Maliki government, as well as on Sadr's forces.

I have been saying for the last several years that the best we are going to get out of Iraq is a country that is not in open civil war, but which is a pro-Iranian, Shia theocracy. And, that is exactly what we are getting. For the trillion dollars we spend, the thousands of dead American soldiers, the tens of thousands of injured soldiers, and the deaths of countless Iraqis, WE WILL GET NOTHING!

At least with Obama, we may be able to speed up our exit, but even with McCain, we will be getting out. The only problem is that with McCain the U.S. will be kicked out by the Iraqis. At least with Obama's plan we can leave on our own terms and not look like idiots.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

National Polls and the Electoral College Map

Obama seems to have gotten a bit of a bump and has opened up a little bit of a wider lead on McCain now that Hillary has officially dropped out and endorsed him.

We are still 5 months away and these polls don't mean a whole heck of a lot. People will really start to pay attention in late September. However, it is not the national polls that matter it comes down to turnout and the Electoral College. Right now, Obama holds a slight edge in the Electoral College.

Here is my prediction, Obama is going to trounce McCain for two simple reasons:

1. His message and positions are better. I cannot imagine voters going for McCain's unending war strategy nor do I believe they want a President who admits he doesn't understand economics and who seems to think Bushie's economic policies are great for America.

2. MONEY! Obama will have plenty of cash because more donors and Americans support him. He will put states like Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Kansas, and Missouri in play and he will win a few of them.

In the end, this won't really be all that close an election.

Monday, June 09, 2008

Bram Weinstein

I turned on ESPN News last night after the Celtics game (which I was very pleased about), and saw that Bram was at the anchor's desk. He provided at least some objectivity on Redskins Radio to offset Larry Michael's Danny-Boy arse-kissing nonsense.

Too bad.

When Al Koken, Czabe, B-Mitch and Andy Pollan all get fired when Danny Boy takes over, we'll get to hear a bunch of Danny Boy lovers cutting off criticism of the Redskins. I wonder if JKD is going to find a new job over at Redskins Radio.

Sunday, June 08, 2008

The Obama Money Machine

It is no secret that I like Obama and that I agree with his message of change. In my opinion, he has very advantageous positions relative to John McCain that should help sweep him to victory in November.

His policy positions are part of the reason that he has a groundswell of support from so many small donors. His fundraising advantages will swamp McCain and the RNC and help Dems up-and-down the ticket. Politico recently ran a great piece on his money machine.

But just what are the numbers? At the beginning of May, McCain has about $9.2M in cash on hand to Obama's $37M. However, the RNC had $40M to the DNC's $4.4M. So right now, cash is about equivalent.

But, here is the bottom line, every month, Obama is raising more than double what McCain has been raising. On top of that, Obama just put a couple of his finance guys over in the DNC and I am betting that fundraising is going to jump for the DNC. We'll have to see, but in the end, my guess is that the Dems will destroy the Republicans in terms of cash, and this will translate into huge gains in November.

Friday, June 06, 2008

Holy Sh*t!

Oil prices shot up to almost $135/barrel this morning as Morgan Stanley predicted that oil would be at $150/barrel by July 4. Forget about $4/gallon gas, we will be talking about the possibility of $5/gallon this summer if that happens.

In 2001, when Bushie took office a barrel of oil averaged $23/barrel and gas cost about $1.75/gallon in today's dollars.

Unemployment jumped by 0.5 percent - the highest rate in more than 20 years. It is a good thing that McCain thinks that Bushie's economic policies have been good for America. See the videos posted below.

John McCain Defends The Bush Economic Record

More on McCain's belief in Bushie's economic policies.

McCain: Out of Touch

McCain likes the Bush economy.

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Danny Boy Buys WTEM

Sad day for sports radio in Washington. Unlike Danny Boy's "Redskin Radio" stations which limited criticism and had that suckup Larry Michel kissing Danny Boy's arse at noon every day, WTEM was the reliable radio station that provided an honest forum for discussion of the Redskins (and other sports).

I guess Danny Boy didn't like the criticism from fans and radio hosts, so he bought WTEM and will just make "improvements." He is going to get rid of guys like Brian Mitchell and Steve Czaban and bring in more friendly guys to his regime.

More propaganda on the way! WTEM's local programming (non-ESPN hosts) will probably become unlistenable.

Clinton to Endorse Obama

As I expected, Clinton will formally drop out and endorse Obama. It is over.

There is some work to do to mend fences and unite the Party, but this should not be a problem at all. There is plenty of time to do that. Most Americans don't follow politics all that closely and won't even remember the bitterness that emerged between the Obama and Clinton camps at the end of the primary fight. The Dems will be united and 2008 will result in sweeping victories for the Dems.

Unlike some elections, there is are clear and gaping differences on major substantive issues between Obama and McCain. This will be a battle of ideas and the best man will win out.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

It is Over!

Obama will be the nominee for the Democratic Party. The final two primaries are tonight. Obama will win both and by tonight, tomorrow, or at the latest the end of the week, he will have enough delegates to have locked up the nomination.

It has been over for months, but after tonight there will be no other primaries and it will be officially over.