Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Daily Election Thoughts

The polls are again moving toward Obama. The USA Today/Gallup Poll showed a 10 point lead for McCain a couple of days ago, but yesterday's Gallup Poll showed the lead cut in half. Rasmussen had McCain up a point a couple of days ago and Obama is now up a point. However you want to cut it, the polls are close.

One thing to keep in mind is that polling is usually done with "likely voters." For the most part, likely voters are people who have been registered for a while and who have voted in prior elections. If it is true that Obama's ground game has registered millions of new voters and that younger voters - who are voting for the first time - are in fact energized to vote, then the poll numbers should be discounting Obama's true level of support. We'll see if this is true on election day.

Obama needs to completely avoid discussing Palin. He is not in a race against Palin - he is in a race against McCain. Don't elevate her. She has been an effective diversion but that simply won't last if he stays focused on McCain. The bottom line is that McCain has voted with Bush more than 90 percent of the time - he has been proud of that fact. McCain admits to not understanding economic issues and to make matters even worse for himself, he things the economy is fundamentally strong and that Bush's economic policies should be continued.

Obama needs to just stay focused and the momentum will continue to shift toward him.

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