Thursday, October 29, 2009

U.S. Economy is Improving

Today the 3Q GDP figure came out as growing 3.5 percent - that is a remarkable number given where it was at the end of 2008. The stimulus seems to be working. The big number now is 4Q GDP. If we see 3 percent or higher then we are on our way to real recovery.

This recovery is a bit ahead of where I thought it would be. Next week (Nov. 6) we'll get the unemployment figures and I expect that it will still be 9.8 percent or even a tick higher. As I have been saying for months, unemployment is always the last economic indicator to improve because firms always wait to hire employees and expand until they are sure the economy is improving.

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