If The Election Were Today . . .
President Obama would win in a landslide. First, the national polls don't really matter. President Obama is likely to end up with far more votes simply because he will win California, New York and Illinois by fairly large margins. Romney will win in Texas, but he doesn't really have any big population states that he can count on.
The fact is that Presidential elections are determined by the Electoral College and that is heavily tilted toward Obama right now. Although there is still time for Romney, it is not very clear to me how the Ryan pick helps him pick up any of the significant battleground states. In fact, it is likely that Ryan hurts him in all of the critical states because of their larger older populations.
I'll look every week or two to see if there is any change, but for months the map has looked the same with President Obama winning big.