No Real Ryan Bounce
So now we have had a little over a week since Mitt Romney let us know that Paul Ryan was his VP pick. Looking over the polls, the Electoral College map, and the Intrade odds, there really hasn't been any significant bounce from the announcement.
The national polls still show a fairly close race, but when you look at the Electoral College map, it still shows an Obama landslide.
A very good predictor of who will win is the Intrade market. This is a "stock market" type exchange in which people can purchase contracts on who they think will win. Basically, it is how people bet (with real money) on who the winner will be. Today Intrade is showing the odds of Obama winning are at 57.5% to Romney's 41.5% chance. This is pretty much where it was before the Ryan pick.
Intrade was dead on on the Obama landslide over McCain. It was especially accurate when you looked state by state. The three most critical battleground states are Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. Frankly, there is almost no way for Romney to win if he doesn't win all three states. He is being destroyed in Ohio, he is losing solidly in Virginia, and he is slightly up in Florida according to the Intrade odds.
As I always say, there is still time, but there really has to be a major event, blunder, or unexpected change for Romney to win. Everything is pointing to an easy Obama reelection victory right now.