Intrade at 70 percent . . .
for President Obama re-election. I am sure a lot of this is due to the infighting within the Romney camp, as well as the fact that a lot of down-ballot Republicans are distancing themselves from Romney. Pawlenty quit as a national co-chair to join a lobbying firm. That kind of thing doesn't happen if there is confidence in victory.
Look, the election is not a done deal. There are still two jobs reports - both of which will likely show more than 100,000 jobs created. If they show over 160,000 jobs created, it will be great news for the President. If the jobs reports show less than 40,000, then it will be bad news. Anything between 40,000 and 160,000 probably doesn't move voters either way.
With QE3, we may see an increase in commodity prices - which would include oil. It may impact gas prices, but it seems unlikely that we will see a huge jump.
There is unrest in the Middle East - there is always unrest, so short of a major, major crisis, it is unlikely that we will see much movement.
The debates have yet to take place, but historically, they are not likely to move the numbers. If anything, I expect that Romney will be on the defensive about a lot of the gaffes that he has inflicted upon himself over the last few days, weeks, and months.
Short of a "black swan" event that is totally unpredictable, it looks like President Obama will cruise to a landslide victory in about 7 weeks. The poll data (especially in battleground states) and the Intrade markets are really reflecting that it is likely. We'll see.