It is Pretty Much Over!
President Obama is going to be re-elected in a landslide. The Intrade market is now at 75 percent and all of the polls - nationally and in the key battleground states - have significantly tilted toward the President. Most of this is a result of Romney's self-inflicted wounds and the video of him showing what he really thinks about this country.
It is going to be almost impossible for Romney to regain enough momentum to make a serious run at President Obama. The debates are coming - but there is little chance that they will move the needle. Besides, Romney and Ryan are going to have to address all of their gaffes and errors over the last few weeks, so it will be difficult to gain any kind of upper hand. There are two jobs reports, but the reality is that economic indicators are improving and it is unlikely that we will see job losses. In fact, I would guess that we will see at least 120,000 jobs created in both reports.
Now, the biggest question is how bad a loss are the Republicans going to incur. It does matter because if Romney continues to trend downward, there will be even more losses in down-ballot elections. Many Republicans may stay home and in close elections against Democrats, this may prove to be the deciding factor. It is almost a lock that the Senate will stay in Democratic hands and there is the growing possibility that Democrats could regain the House. We'll see.