Nails in the Coffin

It is not over yet, but it is getting close to the end for Romney.

Romney's latest distractions and the stories about his campaign staff infighting show how poor a candidate he is, and operation he has run. He was a weak candidate to begin with and he picked a poor running mate. The way he has bungled and gaffed his way through the last couple of months has been embarrassing. The fact that he has to play defense so much keeps him from getting on message - and it is all because of his own blunders.

The latest polls show him behind and he has clearly lost ground in Virginia. Given that he is losing Ohio by a healthy margin, Wisconsin is slipping away, and he is losing in Florida, there is just no real reason to think he has much of a chance. This is reflected in the dramatic shift in the Intrade market over the last two weeks, which is now showing an almost 70 percent chance for an Obama re-election.

I'm not ready to say it is a done deal - although it is close - but I will say that we will know it is over when the RNC starts to run ads for its down-ticket candidates and show them disagreeing with Romney positions. The first rats off Romney's sinking ship will be Republican members of Congress. There are already some public comments by Republican candidates for Senate (Scott Brown and Linda McMahon most recently) that disavow Romney's comments. As more come out and speak about how they don't support Romney it will be clear the campaign is over.