Polls and Intrade

It now seems clear that there was a significant bump for Obama from the DNC. It looks like there was a 5-6 point bump. But, given the inconsistencies over the weekend from Romney and Ryan, the effect has been heightened.

Intrade is now at 60-61 percent chance of an Obama victory. Nate Silver - the stats guru - who writes the fivethirtyeight blog at the NY Times now places the chances of Obama's reelection at 80 percent.

Something big has to happen to really move the needle in favor of Romney. It could happen, but it is getting later and later and Romney/Ryan have not been helping themselves.