Debate #3: Pre-game Thoughts and the State of the Race
Nothing has really changed in terms of the outcome that I can see. No question the polls are tighter - but that isn't really surprising. It was going to tighten anyway - as elections tend to do. Looking at the Intrade and prediction markets, President Obama has a better than 60 percent chance to be re-elected. Unless something dramatic happens, there isn't much reason to believe he won't be re-elected. I am very curious about the Gallup poll today. Gallup's national poll is a 7-day tracking poll and it has been running at about +6% for Romney, but today's poll will be the first one that has a clear majority of individuals polled after last week's debate. I expect that it will come back in line with the 3-day tracking polls that show a much closer race.
The third debate is tonight. It focuses on foreign policy. I'm not sure how it really helps Romney to debate foreign policy. I doubt voters really care about foreign policy issues in this election. I am still perplexed by Romney's Benghazi attack. Aside from the fact that most Americans have no ideas what it is (sad to say), Romney's politicization of it doesn't seem to make much sense. Why he thinks there is some kind of cover-up is beyond me.
The key for tonight is to look sober, serious, firm, and presidential. Attacking won't really convince swing voters to come around because they won't really know or care about the facts and they may be turned off by overly-aggressive attacking.
As for me, I have to evaluate basketball players for my youth basketball team until 9:00 and then the Bears are on Monday Night Football, so I will likely miss much of the debate.