Nate Silver's blog is a must read if you are interested in stats and numbers. He had a great post yesterday on how/why the prediction markets are so effective and discussed the fact that Intrade tends to overestimate the chances of the underdog - although the Intrade markets still predict the winner correctly. If you are wondering, he puts the chances of President Obama's re-election at 71 percent today. Intrade puts it at 60 percent. Anything over 53 percent is pretty much a lock based on past history.
There is an interesting trend that shows that the gender gaps have closed. The more significant finding is that the President had a 16 point lead among women a month ago, but they are now even. The problem that I see for Romney is that as the final days of the election come, there will be a concerted effort to remind female voters about Romney and Republican positions against women's health and equal pay for equal work. In addition, you have two Republican Senate candidates - Akin in Missouri and Mourdock in Indiana - who have very odd views of rape that can't help bring in women voters.