Election Thoughts
Nate Silver's blog is a must read if you are interested in stats and numbers. He had a great post yesterday on how/why the prediction markets are so effective and discussed the fact that Intrade tends to overestimate the chances of the underdog - although the Intrade markets still predict the winner correctly. If you are wondering, he puts the chances of President Obama's re-election at 71 percent today. Intrade puts it at 60 percent. Anything over 53 percent is pretty much a lock based on past history.
There is an interesting trend that shows that the gender gaps have closed. The more significant finding is that the President had a 16 point lead among women a month ago, but they are now even. The problem that I see for Romney is that as the final days of the election come, there will be a concerted effort to remind female voters about Romney and Republican positions against women's health and equal pay for equal work. In addition, you have two Republican Senate candidates - Akin in Missouri and Mourdock in Indiana - who have very odd views of rape that can't help bring in women voters.
posted by Rob @ 10/25/2012 10:53:00 AM
6 comments
6 Comments:
Leaving aside for a minute what the prediction markets say, consider these facts about Obama's reign:
Obama accepted a $ 1 million campign contribution from a person who refers to women as tw*ts, c*nts, boobs, etc. That the Obama campaign hasn't returned the money is proof that BHO agrees with these comments. Who's waging a "war on women" now?
Real unemployment of 14.7% with years of grinding, spirit busting high unemployment rates to follow if BHO is reelected.
The lowest labor force participation rate in at least 25 years
A debt of $ 16 trillion and growing with $ 1 trillion annual deficits the new normal
A foreign policy in tatters: Russia, China no longer respect us; we've thrown Israel and our Eastern European allies under the bus; Iran closer than ever to the bomb; we've abandoned Iraq and Afghanistan; Al Qaeda is resurgent, etc.
And last but not least, BENGHAZI, BENGHAZI, BENGHAZI (yes this issue is even more important than Sandra Fluke's birth control pills).
Other than the above, Obama has done a great job!
And you still support this guy?!!
Dennis
"A 1/32 Cherokee Tea Party guy having fun"
"If four Americans get killed, it’s not optimal." -Barack Obama on COMEDY CENTRAL with Jon Stewart.
One item I've meant to address is your contention that expecting a minimum of 500k jobs per month created in a recovery is "ridiculous", "childish" or "silly".
Under President Reagan,according to the Labor Dept., there were 3.4 million jobs created in 1983 and 3.9 million jobs created in 1984, a monthly average of 305k over that two year period. Aha, you say, even under Reagan there weren't 500k jobs/ mo created. Case closed. Not so fast, professor. You have to look further than the raw numbers and do some analysis. The current situation in the country and the world is not the same as it was in 1984. The US population is 37% greater now and our GDP is much larger now as is world-wide GDP. So there are many more opportunities to create jobs now than in 1984. Let's look at GDP values. The 1984 GDP was $ 3.9 Trill which is $ 7.5 trill in current dollars. GDP for 2011 was $ 15 trill. GDP is double now relative to the value under Reagan. With these values in mind, even allowing for increases in productivity, it is entirely reasonable to expect at least 500k jobs. mo created now. Heck, even "Crazy Uncle" Joe Biden feels it's reasonable. Here's what he had to say in 2010: "Well, I'm here to tell you, some time in the next couple of months, we're going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month."
Unfortunately it hasn't happened quite as Joe predicted.
Dennis
"A 1/32 Cherokee Tea Party guy having fun"
"If four Americans get killed, it’s not optimal." -Barack Obama on COMEDY CENTRAL with Jon Stewart
Romney won't tell us where his money goes and how he has made his money - I have little doubt that he has made significant foreign investments that are contrary to U.S. national interests.
Unemployment is coming down. It is a far cry from the 800,000 jobs per month that we were losing when Obama took office.
The deficit is shrinking ($300 billion less this year than when Obama took office). Again, this is a far cry from the explosion we saw over the Bush years. I have already talked about how it will continue to decline (rapidly) over the next 4 years.
Even if you are correct about our foreign policy - which I don't agree with you on. Romney saying Russia is our greatest threat (silly), China will be labeled a currency manipulator (outright stupid), and his foolishness at the Olympics don't give cause for confidence. On top of that, he agrees with Obama's work in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan - at least he said so in the last debate. Al Qaeda is an idea - there is no central planners - it will be there forever. I don't think you know what is happening in Iran - it is on the brink of economic collapse thanks to the strict sanctions Obama has put in.
Benghazi - I don't understand what you think the problem is. There is no coverup, and unfortunately because of Darrell Issa's idiocy in his effort to politicize it, now our enemies have learned of our top secret use of secondary secure bunkers at our embassies. The guy is a total fool.
After he wins, the next four years are going to see even greater economic improvement and success.
You decided to double down on the foolish idea that we should be getting 500,000 jobs/month. I guess you are entitled to your belief - no matter how economically and realistically challenged that idea may be.
UN PRESIDENT TIM KALEMKARIAN, US PRESIDENT TIM KALEMKARIAN, US SENATE TIM KALEMKARIAN, US HOUSE TIM KALEMKARIAN: BEST MAJOR CANDIDATE.
Who? I actually looked up Tim Kalemkarian. What a waste of time. The guy has been running for the House and the Senate in California, and for President. He sounds like an idiot.
Actually, he is probably the one who posted the above comment. I cannot believe that there are actually people who work for his campaign.
"Romney won't tell us where his money goes and how he has made his money - I have little doubt that he has made significant foreign investments that are contrary to U.S. national interests."
Romney has been clear about how he's made his money. Obama hasn't been clear about how he's lived his life. PRECISELY how have Romney's foreign investments been contrary to our national interests?
"Benghazi - I don't understand what you think the problem is."
It's not what I THINK the problem is, it's what any thinking person KNOWS the problem is. If you don't realize what the problem is, I can't help you. We deserve ANSWERS from the President. Here are some questions I'd ask him:
1. You knew within two hours of the attack that it was a terrorist incident. Why did you continue to insist that an obscure video about Mohammed was the cuase of the attack?
2.Why did your UN Ambassador appear on five talk shows 5days after the terrorist attack and insist that the video was the cause?
3. Why weren't armed members of the US military gaurding the Benghazi Consulate after an earlier attack on the Consulate and an attack on the British Ambassador to Libya?
4. Why were requests for added security from the Consulate ignored by your Administration?
5. Why were CIA operators in Benghazi told to "stand down" when they requested permission to go to the Consulate to help Ambassador Stevens and others who were under attack?
6. Why weren't military assests from Sigonella Air Station in Sicily deployed to Beghazi to rescue those at the Consulate?
7. Why were 4 Americans left to die?
President Obama's politicization of the Benghazi tragedy is a disgrace and reason enough to remove him from office.
Dennis
"A 1/32 Cherokee Tea Party guy having fun"
"We’re going to have that person arrested and prosecuted that did the video."-Hillary Clinton to murdered Navy Seal Tyrone Woods' father
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