Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Expanding Electoral Map?

There are reports that Romney is spending money in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota - in addition to Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. This has heartened some Republicans who think that the map is wide open. A false hope.

It is not a sign that things are getting tigher, it is a sign that Romney is desperate because he knows he is not going to win Ohio. He may also lose in Virginia and perhaps even in Florida. None of the 6 states I listed initially above are in any real danger of going to Romney. The President is having to spend money to make sure they stay in his column, but to me it is the clearest sign that Romney recognizes he is on the verge of defeat.

The prediction markets agree. Intrade is now up over 66 percent in favor of Obama. Nate Silver's model puts re-election for Obama at over 77 percent.

It also doesn't help that Romney wants to do away with FEMA and let the states handle their emergencies. Not a popular position in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's devastation.

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