Thursday, October 04, 2012

First Debate Thoughts

Romney clearly won from a visual/perceptual level. He was more aggressive and focused in his responses. President Obama looked tentative and almost listless at times. It was a bad performance from a body language perspective. The thing that was disappointing is that it just did not appear that President Obama was engaged in the debate.

It was a great night for Romney in that he would have been completely knocked out of the race if he had a bad night. Now, there are some who will give him some additional time to lay out his agenda. That said, I doubt there will be much real movement in the polls.

Intrade is now at 66 percent for President Obama's reelection. There has been a clear drop over the last week or so and a 4 point shift overnight. But even with that shift, it still is a landslide for President Obama. The problem for Romney is that while the body language was good and he clearly gained some traction, there is skeptism and issues about his policies.

One last thing - I have seen these flash polls and discussions about who won last night. It is clear that Romney won the night. The real question is whether it actually changes enough voters' minds. I know Romney won, but I also know that I would not vote for him. I suspect that there are a lot of folks like that (on both sides). In about 3-4 days we will see if it had a major effect on voters' decision-making. We'll just have to wait and see.

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