Intrade at 60 percent
There is no question that Romney changed his fortunes with his debate performance (and Obama's listless performance). The national polls have shifted by about 5 points toward Romney. As a result, there are a lot of Dems who are panicking that the sky is falling.
The race is still a race of battleground states. While Romney has closed some of the leads and passed Obama in some of the latest polls in battleground states, he still faces a major uphill battle. This is why Intrade still gives Obama a 60 percent chance at re-election. Nate Silver puts his re-election at 71 percent. Frankly, anything over 53 percent on the Intrade market is pretty much a lock of happening.
The President needs to show some fight in the remaining debates because people want to feel that he is engaged. He is fine in the campaign-trail speeches, and his ads will continue to run. But he has to do better in the debates because this is a chance to face Romney face-to-face. I fully expect him to do better in coming debates and take a more aggressive approach. As that happens, he will solidify his position and win. If he is tentative, we could see further erosion in his chances. It is in his hands.
posted by Rob @ 10/10/2012 10:24:00 AM
3 comments
3 Comments:
What is your basis to think that "anything over 53%" on Intrade is a lock?
Uh, oh. The race is tightening...tightening.
Obama's problem is that he has nothing to fight back with in the debates. He can't tell the truth about his economic and foreign policy record. What do you mean when you say he should "take a more aggressive approach"? What is the specific strategy?
Dasichist-I think Rob's statement that "anything over 53%" on Intrade is a lock is based on scientific...wishful thinking.
Dennis
"A 1/32 Cherokee Tea Party guy having fun"
"We don’t believe that anybody is entitled to success in this country." -Barack Obama from a 10/5/12 speech in Virginia
Intrade was correct to within 1 Electoral College vote in 2008. It was 100% accurate in 2004 on the Electoral College numbers. If you study how Intrade works - how statistics work in general - when you have larger numbers of bets coming in a smaller difference becomes statistically significant.
Given the numbers of bets that are coming in, I would probably even say that a 51 percent Intrade number is probably enough to expect a victory for either candidate. At 53 percent vs. 47 percent it would be a lock.
That is not "wishful thinking" as Dennis wants to believe - it is based on looking at Intrade over the last 2 election cycles and knowing basics about statistics.
The polls have tightened and consistent with that the Intrade numbers have tightened since last week. That said, it had fallen to about 60 percent, but as I am writing this right now, the Intrade number is just under 63 percent.
As far as I am concerned, this race has been over for some time and nothing has changed to make me think otherwise. Certainly if Biden and Obama have horrible debates and the economy take a surprising turn downward things could change, the Intrade numbers could change and then I might think otherwise, but that just hasn't happened.
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