Post-Debate Thoughts: Less than 2 Weeks

The race is about where I would expect. It looks like President Obama has a great shot at re-election and will win the Electoral College by about 50 electors. Virginia, Colorado, and most important, Ohio are all in play. Florida and New Hampshire are slightly in play, but other than that the states look pretty well set.

If Romney were to lose any of the following: Virginia, Florida, or Ohio it is over and President Obama will be returned to office for a second term. Is it close - sort of, but not enough to really worry if you are an Obama supporter.

The Intrade market give President Obama a 56 percent chance of re-election. Nate Silver's calculation puts it almost at 70 percent. Unless there is some major gaffe or the October jobs number (due on the Friday before the election) shows major job losses - which is highly unlikely - it is still President Obama's to lose.