Prediction Markets

There was an initial drop this morning on Intrade that dropped the President from about 65 percent to 63 percent. But now it is up to almost 67 percent. I would be willing to bet that there was an effort to try to manipulate Intrade to blunt the momentum of the jobs report. I heard that it takes about $7000 to move Intrade a point one way or another - I'm not sure if that is true, but it was mentioned on CNBC.

The reason that the prediction markets work so well is that people bet real money. So if you have manipulation it is quickly corrected as people take advantage of faulty prices.

One other note, Nate Silver now puts that re-election at 81 percent. I suspect this will go up today as the jobs number came in so strong - well above expectations.