Michelle Bachmann Gets a Laugh
Michelle is a joke as a member of Congress. In Minnesota people erupted in laughter at her lie. Look at her face - she actually looks surprised.
This site provides an outlet for my observations and personal musings about current events, politics, business, sports, family, and anything else that comes to mind. If you agree that's great, but if you disagree and want to engage in intellectual debate that's even better.
We are less than a week from the election and Romney has refused to do any national interviews - including with Faux News. He is embarrassed by his position that FEMA should be eliminated and the states and the private sector should pay for their own emergency responses. Silly position given that we are looking at $20-$40 billion in losses as a result of Sandy.
There are reports that Romney is spending money in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota - in addition to Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. This has heartened some Republicans who think that the map is wide open. A false hope.
Nate Silver's blog is a must read if you are interested in stats and numbers. He had a great post yesterday on how/why the prediction markets are so effective and discussed the fact that Intrade tends to overestimate the chances of the underdog - although the Intrade markets still predict the winner correctly. If you are wondering, he puts the chances of President Obama's re-election at 71 percent today. Intrade puts it at 60 percent. Anything over 53 percent is pretty much a lock based on past history.
I think the case for President Obama being re-elected is pretty strong on his record. The economy was in a tailspin with 800,000 jobs being lost every month. The stock market was collapsing and GDP was contracting at about 6 percent/year. The housing market had disintegrated and there was enormous uncertainty as President Obama took office. The passage of the stimulus had a major and easily verifiable effect on turning around the economy. We have now had 31 straight months of job growth, GDP is rising, the stock markets have recovered and corporate profits are back to pre-collapse levels. There has been significant bank regulatory reform to better protect us from another collapse caused by bad banking decisions. And, now the housing market is in full recovery.
The race is about where I would expect. It looks like President Obama has a great shot at re-election and will win the Electoral College by about 50 electors. Virginia, Colorado, and most important, Ohio are all in play. Florida and New Hampshire are slightly in play, but other than that the states look pretty well set.
With a 5-1 record and the NFL's stingiest scoring defense and most opportunistic defense in terms of scoring itself, there is no question that the Bears can make a good run this year. They play Carolina and then Tennessee the next two weeks. If they can get to 7-1 they will almost be a lock for the playoffs.
Nothing has really changed in terms of the outcome that I can see. No question the polls are tighter - but that isn't really surprising. It was going to tighten anyway - as elections tend to do. Looking at the Intrade and prediction markets, President Obama has a better than 60 percent chance to be re-elected. Unless something dramatic happens, there isn't much reason to believe he won't be re-elected. I am very curious about the Gallup poll today. Gallup's national poll is a 7-day tracking poll and it has been running at about +6% for Romney, but today's poll will be the first one that has a clear majority of individuals polled after last week's debate. I expect that it will come back in line with the 3-day tracking polls that show a much closer race.
President Obama won the night, but I thought Romney did a pretty good job. Certainly it wasn't a total wipeout like the first debate in which Romney destroyed a listless President Obama. There were a couple of times I thought they might actually hit each other. It was a pretty physically intimidating debate.
Let me start with the Washington Nationals. Great year, good young team, should be good for years. Facing elimination, Jason Werth knocked a walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth to force a deciding Game 5 tonight. With Gio Gonzales pitching I like the Nationals chances.
I thought both men did a pretty good job that works for their respective base voters. No question Biden was the aggressor and it was probably a good thing so that Dems could be reassured after the President's listless performance in his debate. But, I was impressed with the way Ryan carried himself. He did not offer specifics on a wide range of things - even when pressed. I also thought he got turned around on the discussion about Afghan troops. But, he was not overwhelmed.
At 9:00 tonight we get the VP debate. I don't think the debate itself moves people, but it is going to have an indirect effect because the media will set a narrative as a result.
The guy gets some very mild questioning and then can't take it and walks out. What a dope.
Yesterday he seemed to say that he wouldn't push for abortion legislation as President, but then he backtracked.
1. Houston is really, really good - the best in the NFL right now. But the loss of Brian Cushing is significant and could really change their fortunes. The NFL has to take a hard look at cut blocks like the one that took out his knee.
There is no question that Romney changed his fortunes with his debate performance (and Obama's listless performance). The national polls have shifted by about 5 points toward Romney. As a result, there are a lot of Dems who are panicking that the sky is falling.
I love the Bears D this year. There are legitimately at least 4 future Hall of Fame players on the D (Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers, and Tillman). The front 4 has a great mix of young and older players who can get pressure without blitzing. The linebackers are able to stay clean because the D-tackles are keeping offensive linemen off of them. The corners are great and DJ Moore is a very good nickel. But, what has been a real surprise is how good the young safeties have been.
The jobs report was solid yesterday and unemployment fell to 7.8 percent. Instead of cheering this fact, there are Republicans and much of Faux News who are claiming that the numbers are bogus. That is utterly irresponsible.
He now claims he didn't mean it when he disparaged 47 percent of the country. Just the latest in a long line of flip flops.
The economy added 114,000 jobs last month and there were significant upper revisions to prior months. The end result is that unemployment ticked down to 7.8 percent.
Romney clearly won from a visual/perceptual level. He was more aggressive and focused in his responses. President Obama looked tentative and almost listless at times. It was a bad performance from a body language perspective. The thing that was disappointing is that it just did not appear that President Obama was engaged in the debate.
Intrade has moved in Romney's direction. The odds of President Obama's reelection are now at about 74 percent - down 5 points from a few days ago. It is still overwhelmingly against Romney, but we'll see if it continues to trend in his direction.
The Bears went to Dallas and beat up the Cowboys. The story of the game was defense. The Bears picked off Romo five times including two pick-6's. They weren't all Romo's fault - his receivers and O-line did not give him much help.
My soccer team won its second in a row (both shutouts). I like the way we are playing overall, but it seems that in every game our first 5-10 minutes are terrible. We look slow and lethargic.